Last summer, in the weeks after the referendum, talk of the UK falling into recession was rife. Economists including myself slashed UK growth forecasts.
By August economists expected GDP growth would fall away in the second half of 2016 as Brexit hit home. They saw the UK eking out meagre growth of less than 1.0% in 2017, the slowest since the recession in 2009.
Instead, the market has so far surprised everyone ths year! The UK economic activities accelerated from the middle of last year and for 2016 as a whole GDP growth came in at 2.0%, the best of any major industrialised nation. (Even beat out the good old USA.)
UK consumers kept spending and borrowing in the second half of 2016 and the services sector saw good growth.
Last autumn the focus of market concern shifted to 2017 and three Brexit-related risks – from higher inflation hitting consumer spending, the effects of uncertainty on business investment and, in March, the triggering of Article 50.
And yes - these risks remain, but the scale of the threat they pose has much reduced.